Bad Beats Quote from Mother Teresa

“I know God won't give me anything I can't handle. I just wish he didn't trust me so much.”

The Guild

 

The Guild is very funny comedy about dysfunctional gamers and is a You Tube sensation. It is still going strong after five seasons. The script, acting, directing and casting are all great.

With poker, when playing small the King has to play for many hours and can relate to the Guild characters. At the present time, the King is playing at the upper micro limits because he took some shots at the low limit games and lost, so to recover from his losses the structure has to be at the upper micro limits.

Outs for Top Pair and a Backdoor Draw.

The King folded top pair and wondered what his decision would have been with more time.
The game is a somewhat loose and four handed.  The blind structure is 2-5.  CO calls, BTN, calls, and the King, SB, folded A♣-8♥.  The BB bets and the limpers call (6.5 small bets).  The flop is:
A♥-T♦-7♠.

The King's preflop fold was correct according to his plan.  If the King was playing this hand how many outs would he have?  Aces would be 2, Eights would be 3 and the Backdoor draw would be .5 outs.  With 5.5 outs,  the King already has top pair with a mediocre kicker. 

Overcoming the 10% Juice in Sit-N-Go

The juice seems too big, but no so after doing the math.

# of Players:  6

Buy In:  10¢ + 1¢

Prize:  1st - 42¢, 2nd - 18¢, 3rd - 6th 0¢

Average Players Chance of Winning 1st or 2nd:  1/6 or 16.7%.  So at this win percentage the  average player's average win per round would be 60¢

Cost: 11¢ x 6  or 66¢

Break Even:  x = the higher win percentage to break even
42¢x + 18¢x = 66¢
x = 1.1
1.1 / 6 = 18.3%
So the break even percentage per hand is 18.3%, a bit more than 16.7%. With the better players
at the higher stakes, the micro sit-n-gos should have many loose players.

Pot Limit Omaha

This game, after a little checking, is second in popularity after no limit hold 'em.  Fixed limit hold 'em is third in popularity.  In pot limit omaha the pots can be big and is like no-limit.  This game seems to be growing in popularity compared to a few years ago when fixed limit hold em was the second most popular game.

Ladies Only $200 Freezeout

This was a choice tournament to enter into, if you were a lady, and it started a few minutes ago. The $200 is spread over the top five places, and there were only 37 players.  The minimum required is 20 players and the maximum is 2,000.  The buy-in was $2.20 so the 37 players spent a total of $81.40, and the payout is $200. 

This is a ladies only tournament and they are practically giving money away. In open tournaments, these situations are virtually non-existent.


1st Place  $80
2nd Place  $50
3rd Place  $30
4th Place  $24
5th Place  $16
Total Payout  $200.

$2.20 buy-in @ 37 entries = $81.40.

Completing a Draw

On YouTube, there are many videos of Jennifer Tillly playing poker. There is a video of her wearing a low blouse and when she catches a big hand on the flop, her chest heaves very visibly.

The King is playing no-limt freerolls and it is an experience that cannot be learned. The all-ins and bluffs when the blinds increase is what makes a tournament end and makes tournaments a different kind of animal than ring games. However, tournaments with all of its long term variance provides short term stability because you cannot lose more than your buy-in.  Freerolls are best for now.

Limit vs No Limit Poker

What is the difference between limit and no limit poker.  The King has played limit poker for almost three years and has won a tournament ticket from playing in freerolls.  He has studied no limit for a few months, has played in freeroll touraments and won 4 tournament tickets in a short period of time -  not more that two months. It is easier to win tournament tickets in no limit vs limt.

Gutshot Draw

An old postcard of the Sands Hotel in Las Vegas.

Editing photos make them look bettter.  Looking at photos of LV and paintings of the same, the paintings look better.

The King is still not playing for pennies, and playing just for play money heads-up. This game is like a psychologist training a laboratory animal. Previous hands affect the present hand because my opponent remembered the previous hand.  The King successfully bluffs the flop, on the next hand his opponent called his flop bet and folded on the turn bet.  Regularity is not good and unpredicatibility is desirable. the way his opponent thinks is how the King thinks.

If the King has been folding a lot to his opponent's aggression, was it because of bluffing or simply because of his opponent getting good cards? 

Four Day Losing Streak

The King is presently losing badly and the heads up, play money tables - four days in a row.  His balance has not gone done appreciably but losing makes him wonder if his skill level is high enough to beat the game... and at this level.  There were days that he won without effort and the good cards just came on and on, but at present the bad beats are nonstop. The same old story, his good hands get cracked by better hands and calling stations catch miracle cards.  Straight and flush draws don't complete and his opponent's draws come in.  Add to this the tilting.

It is like playing penny poker and his experiencing days of losing and bad beats by players catching miracle cards with garbage hands.

Getting back to reality, the King is still on a long rest from penny poker and organizing his books.

Play Money 6 max

While still on vacation from real money poker, the King is playing just heads-up and 6 max.  The action of heads-up is great for an action junkie, but the variance is big.  The problem with heads-up, for the King, is playing against loose players who play well post flop and are not too aggressive.

The future, as to what the King will play when he resumes real money play, is uncertain.  It willl probably be full ring and some 6 max down to about 4 players. Also on his mind is to play a lot of freeroll, no-limit hold em to gain experience and then decide later whether to play in ring games, sit n go or tournaments. 

U.pressure is doing well, it seems, from her (his) Bluff player profile. She won 1st place once for over a grand. Tournaments take time and require some planning. Tournaments at least in the short term has a smaller limit on losses.

Back to 6 max, these games have pot odds because of the high player to flop percentage. In real micro limit games, the players seeing the flop is much lower. With 6 max, to combat the boredom, muilti-tabling is necessary, but not when the table gets down to 2-3 players.

The King is doing very little studying at this time and his poker reading is limited to bits and pieces of heads-up and some of 6 max books. There is not a lot out on heads-up play.

On Vacation

The King is on vacation and taking a break from real money cash games. Sometimes, he might play in a freeroll and daily he plays in play money heads up limit hold 'em.

Playing low pairs, like deuces, are a problem.  When playing 22 heads up in Turbo Texas Hold 'em, they showed a small profit when played by the better computer players.  The King was able to play 22 profitably and the greatest profit cam from betting on the flop.  Turbo's average lineup is loose compared to micro limit cash games.  TTH's setting must be adjusted for tighter play.

The poker players are tighter and play better compared to a year ago. After the King comes back from his vacation, the challenges for the next year will be daunting.

No Whining Allowed on 2+2

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While trying to get something on the double or nothing sit and go games, an interesting rule on the 2+2 forum was found.  At the bottom of the first post, the moderator wrote something to the effect of bad beat whiners would be given just one warning and they would be expelled from there


That certainly was a startling insight of how they conduct themselvs.  Tought guys, cerebral but tough.  Losing whether with a bad beat or from getting a lot of trash hands must be more stressfull at the mid and high level games they play. Temper must flare at those limits and more than the micro stakes.

El Cortez

Closeby was the craps table and the stickman was barking out the colorfull lingo like centerfield nine, easy eight, new shooter, yo, play the field.  The crusty craps dealer was chewing out the new dealer. 

The lady who was playing keno had some luck at the hold 'em table and thinking she can't be good to play keno was a mistake.  The King was playing craps and altho the house edge is smaller playing with craps than keno - both games are unbeatable. That lady was dumpy and acne scarred and looked like one of the characters from a waterfront bar.

The security guard to the left was sitting so low in his chair, like a disinterested high schooler, he could see flashes of cards that the dealer passed out. He said to the King you have KJ, he was right and he showed the King his cards.

The impetuous kid acroos the table was playing loose and aggressive and taking down the pots. The regulars at the table were not very agro unless they had the nuts.  The kid was dressed well in a cheap dress shirt, coat and tie and was talking up a storm, telling to no one in particular, in his self-promoting manner, his great expertise at poker.

Two seats away, this elderly man was comforted by the casino staff because his wife was ill.  He was a regular.  His day was bad and his cards were not running lucky.

The El Cortez is a dump, way past its prime.  But with the old, extravagant style of architecture and interior design, the atmosphere there was nostalgic of times gone by.

Tournaments and Tight Ring Games

     Tournaments take time, they are an investment in time and not for the impatient.  It seems like a contradiction because tournaments are suited for loose and aggressive players.

     You make do with what you have.  In the absence of full ring games, adjustments must be made to play in games with 6, 7, and 8 players.  And in the absence of loose games, game play strategy must be changed to play in tight games.  However, a tight game can have times where many players are in the pot and make small, suited connectors and small pairs worth playing. 

No-Limit

This game is different from limit:  more stealing, continuation bets work better, less players seeing the flop, the big hands like straights and flushes do not occur as often, and the loose aggressive players seem to do well.  Bets are sized in relation to the pot.  Bet sizing according to the other players pot comes into play.

Not Waiting for the Big Blind

Sklansky wrote that mathematically, not waiting for the big blind to come around is not disadvantageous.
The problem is there are many instances where if say.... two players join the table wiithout waiting for the blinds, the table suddenly becomes aggressive. The addition of two big blind sized addtitions to the pot does not change the pot size much. And the addition of two more players should make everyone play tighter, more players more tight and less players play more cards or loose. All this is a strange occurance on the micro limit tables.

Players at the Flop

This statistic might be incorrect. A full ring game of 10 max with just 5 players playing would have a higher seeing the flop statistic than a 10 max. If three people suddenly joined the table, the players seeing the flop statistic would be too high for 8 players but correct for 5 players.

When choosing for table to play on, see if the balance of some of the players are the exact buy-amounts, and if they are - downgrade the loose statistic a bit. Another thing to look for is the "sitting out" that flashes above eacch player before each game.

A plus of this type of incorrect statistic is that the new players joining the table, thinking that the table is loose, will play loose.  So, downgrading the loose statistic should be a compromise and not a drastic action.  Do these downgrades:  slightly loose to tight, loose to slightly loose, and very loose to loose.

Agro Game past Midnight

After midnight, the games are not plentifull but still profitable by playing a little tighter and having some patience. The King joined a full, ring game that was loose and passive with 80% seeing the flop and with an average pot size of 22¢. After the button went around once or twice the game was 60% seeing the flop and with an average pot size of 37¢. After 45 minutes of playing, the King particapated in just one pot and did not win it - the luck was running against him.  The next hand was a big one.

There were ten players with the King at the cutoff.  His hole cards were J♦ 8♦ which is barely playable but has the potential to win a pot with a flush or straight.  A flush with a jack as the high card is good as long as there are just threee cards on the board. 

Two players limped from the early position, a middle position player raised and the next player called.  The King called not expecting a reraise as this game was a bit aggressive and moderately aggressive.  The button, big blind and the two limpers called (14.5 bets).

The flop is 7♥ 5♥ 4♦ giving the King a gutshot straight draw, backdoor flush draw and an overcard.  There is a two flush on board so the King's outs had to be discounted.  The big blind bet, the first limper raised and the second limper called 19.5 bets.  The King quickly decided that his five outer had an overlay and called the bet expecting a couple callers and no reraise.  The button folded and the big blind called (23.5 bets).

The turn was 3♦, so the Kings had J♦ 8♦ and the board was now 7♥ 5♥ 4♦ 3♦.  A six would make a straight, any diamond a flush and a jack a pair.  The big blind bet, seat one raised and seat two reraised, the King was surprised at the aggressiveness of the table and having to call the reraise or fold.  With the pot at 17 big bets, the Kings called expecting anything a flush draw, set, two pair or even a made hand of a straight although this was not likely that someone had a six.  The big blind folded and seat one called  (22 big bets).

The river was the A♦, giving the King the third nut flush.  Seat one bet, seat two called and the King called instead of raising feeling a bit astounded at the agresiveness of the betting.  The Kings won the pot with a flush. The betting was heavy because seat one had a set (three sevens) and seat two had a six for a straight.   The King won a big pot to make up for the bad luck for the previous 45 minutes.

Playing at Limits above Penny Poker

The games are tighter and doesn't seem beatable.  However, the statistics show that tighter games have tighter player standards, so the King's percentage of hands seeing the flop of about 22% seems reasonable for winning in games where, on average, the players see the flop 30 to 50% of the time.

With so few players, playing overcards comes into play more. It seems like if overcards are not played, winning would not be possible or just barely profitable.  Playing overcards and marginal hands at least is action and helps in getting action later with better hands.  Still, playing overcards is not fun. 

There is more to hold 'em than starting hands standards.